Dialogue House meeting

26.11.2020

Below you can find the anonymous points and arguments raised by the discussion participants. The discussion evolved around three topics: internal political crisis in Armenia, security challenges in the context of Russian and Western influences, humanitarian and other issues.

Internal political crisis

The internal political crisis was the main topic of the Dialogue House meeting. The participants described in detail and discussed the conditions that led to the current political situation and the possible ways of overcoming the crisis. The participants touched on atrocities organized by anti-democratic forces, perspectives of snap parliamentary elections, and the role of Armenian CSOs. The following issues were raised:

- The discussion of internal political crisis in Armenia recalled the shortcomings of the current government made after the Velvet revolution. As mentioned by the participants, the Armenian government thought that the people’s job was finished after Velvet Revolution. Moreover, some participants emphasized the fact that the Armenian government failed during the war and even before the war, because it prioritized their populist vision and lost its legitimacy and credibility. The government is not capable of resolving the refugee crisis or negotiating with Aliyev anymore. Changing the cabinet of ministers does not change anything.

- It is important to understand what is really happening in the country. From the outside, it seems that the opposition and the people are protesting in the streets. The real picture is different. Although there are people with justified demands, the so-called “opposition” organizing the rallies spreads hate speech, terrorizes people who support democracy using the legitimate trauma of the people to discredit democratic institutions. The propaganda of some anti-democratic forces is based on the following formula: N. Pashinyan is a traitor who is being supported by the West and Soros, so every person supporting western values is anti-Armenian and a traitor.

- Political and social processes are happening in different levels. Some participants indicated that many people consider the current government incompetent. Furthermore, there is an informational gap, which makes people think that they do not need full sovereignty, and they are tired for fighting for their rights.

- According to several participants, early snap elections are inevitable. A suggestion was made that Armenia to resolve the situation should have good relations with its neighbors and especially Turkey and be guided by the realist agenda. On the other hand, there was another perspective that with Erdogan it is impossible to establish good relations as he plays Putin’s game to make Pashinyan resign.

- Describing the current political crisis, the participants emphasized that one of the targets of the attacks are the CSOs, especially those who are/were involved in peacemaking projects. If the situation gets worse and the hate speech continues, CSOs will be forced to keep low profile and dedicate themselves to only humanitarian work.

- One of the participants stated that Pashinyan’s only support comes from the people. Eventually, the government will turn to NGOs for their resources and experts, like it was recently when they sought advice from civil society on CEPA implementation roadmap.

- Regarding the current situation, there is a risk to generalize public perception. There are people with democratic mindset that want the resignation of Pashinyan. Other people who are also pro-democracy did not want the resignation of the government.

- The need of dialogue and debate on the policy issues was emphasized. Moreover, it was mentioned that experts and opinion-makers are constrained by the current situation and by expressing their opinion; they do not want to harm anybody. The arguments that people use to criticize the government are used and manipulated by anti-democratic forces.

- The only solution of the situation is to strengthen the democratic institutions. Some participants consider that elections should take place where there is a democratic alternative.

- Another participant indicated that there is also the risk that the current government will fail in organizing free and fair elections.

- Some participants of the discussion noted that although there is a sense that both Western and Russian partners abandoned Armenia, the society should be honest and accept that Velvet Revolution was an anti-corruption revolution and not a human rights movement. Armenia did not expect to become a part of the Western security system. From the other hand, Russia would love to establish Russian-backed government. One of the participants indicated that the circumstances are very dangerous for the government’s resigning, because at the moment there is no democratic alternative to replace N. Pashinyan. So, the only way is to postpone elections and stabilize the political situation, stop the attacks on CSOs.

Current security challenges in the context of Russian and Western influences

The discussion participants touched on the role of Russia and the West regarding the situation in Armenia and Artsakh. The pillar of the discussion were the Armenia’s security challenges, the correlation between security and the democratic development and the role of international community. The main issues emphasized were:

- All the participants agreed that the emphasis of the situation is on the security and safety – are people of Armenian or Artsakh safe now? Who is guaranteeing that?

- Regarding the Armenian-Russian relations, some participants stated that Russia did not like Pashinyan from the very start and wanted to get rid of him. Russia does not want democratic Armenia or tangible reforms in Armenia’s justice system.

- Various CSO representatives expressed the concern that the Russian peacekeepers are not able to guarantee the security of Artsakh population, especially taking into account the fact that there were people captured even after the ceasefire establishment. Russia does not have an international peacekeeping mandate granted by UN, OSCE, or even the CSTO, etc. Armenia needs the involvement of the United States and France as Minsk Group co-chairs. There was an opinion expressed that the solution of the conflict could be the “Kosovization” of the NK, but that would need a UN mandate. Ultimately, if the region remains under Russian control, there will be no security and reconciliation safeguards.

- It was noted by one of the participants that some hope that USA will come back to the region and will be much more influential in strengthening Armenia’s democratic institutions and supporting democratic elections. We saw the attempts of international involvement, but the resolution at UN Security Council was sabotaged, probably by the UK.

- With the Russian influence increasingly growing on Armenia and its government, western powers should get more involved, since the civil society in Armenia alone cannot resist that pressure.

- During the discussion, one of the participants called attention to the fact that both the government and the opposition powers all agree that there is no alternative to increasingly deeper dependence on Russia. Since it guarantees the security of the region, it runs the situation.

- It was stressed that the present discussion should have taken place in the National Assembly involving active participation of the decision-makers. Security remains the main question. Currently, Armenia cannot guarantee its own security and its borders are guarded by Russian troops. One of CSO representatives was assured that Russia occupied Azerbaijan’s territory as it has occupied Abkhazia, Crimea. The occupation took place with the participation of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Moreover, the participants added that the strengthening of the authoritarian government in Azerbaijan affects Armenia and is not helping the reconciliation process.

- The parties need international accountability for the peace negotiations, like OSCE Minsk group, UN, etc otherwise manipulations will drive people apart.

- Some participants declared that the Armenian society needs to regain its belief in the international community. Through the international community’s monitoring mechanisms, it should be ensured that peacekeeping stays as peacekeeping and does not turn into political control of the country or the territories.

- The international community looks at this conflict in the context of the war that started 30 years ago. Democratic institutions are very important for the international community and the West will continue to support them.

- One of the participants of the Dialogue House pointed out that every conflict is unique, but there is a similar pattern of Russian behavior. From the EU perspective, Russia and Turkey are very difficult to deal with and it is difficult to step in. The West will continue to support OSCE Minsk Group, justice and public administration reforms in Armenia. International partners hope that the rule of law will prevail in Armenia and EU will remain a valid partner for Armenia.

- According to one participant, the majority of the public is disappointed by the Western values as the West ’allowed’ a military solution to the conflict. They now think that Western values are fake and it is wrong to follow them. The public has no real understanding of the real and democratic values, how they work internally and how they work in international relations.

- Another participant stated that the Armenian society should stop blaming the international community, the society and the Armenian government should be blamed. The international order does not work anymore, taking into account what has happened in Iraq, Syria and in other countries. The society can only demand accountability from its own government.

- It was stressed that if later the Armenian government rejects western assistance, the West should relocate it to CSOs.

Humanitarian and other issues

The main questions discussed referred to the violations of the international humanitarian law by Azerbaijan and the inhuman treatment of POWS and captured civilians. The participants particularly addressed the crisis of Artsakh refugees. Among other points, the following issues were emphasized:

- The CSO representatives stated that the international community should acknowledge the violations of international law and the war crimes. The acknowledgement will contribute to the establishment of the internal piece in Armenia. The internal peace is needed for the Armenian statehood.

- We have seen inhuman treatment of POWs and war crimes, even though preventive mechanisms for such cases are either difficult or do not exist, their condemnation by the international community must take place.

- West should exert pressure on Azerbaijan to return Armenian POWs.

- Some participants stated that further militarization of the Armenian society should be avoided.